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2023年01月19日市场分析

Vantage 更新 Updated Thu, 2023 January 19 02:16

黄金外汇日评:周三美元探底回升,非美普遍冲高回落。日本央行一致通过将基准利率维持在历史低点-0.1%及10年期国债收益率目标维持在0%附近的决定,同时下调2022、2023、2024财年GDP增速预期,上调2022和2024财年核心CPI预期中值,维持利率前瞻指引不变,将在必要时毫不犹豫地加码宽松。美日应声大涨300点,但随后因美元重新走弱。

此外,美国12月零售销售创一年来最大降幅,且12月PPI年率各分项指标均低于预期,再度强化美联储2月加息步伐放缓的预期,美元后市震荡下行的概率仍较高。同时,油价也深受零售销售及12月工业产出表现低迷拖累,短线震荡的概率加大。今日可重点关注美国12月营建许可及新屋开工指标表现。

美元收出十字阴线,徘徊于5日均线,5日,10日均线仍呈空头排列,日线RSI位于低位,103关口面临强压,后市有望延续震荡,建议关注101.5-103。

黄金延续阴跌,跌破5日均线,1920上方存在强压,日线RSI进一步回落,多头动能进一步减弱,后市有望延续下行并测试1890。

原油收流星阴线,未能升破关键压力83,下破5日均线,日线RSI回落至50附近,后市有望延续震荡,建议关注73-83区间。

欧美破高反跌,失守5日均线,4小时始终未摆脱区间震荡格局,日线RSI继续回落,后市有望延续震荡,建议关注1.07-1.09区间。

镑美继续破高,升破日线布林上轨,下方受5日均线依托,且短期均线上扬呈多头排列,1.23关口成为下方第一关键支撑,后市有望延续上行并测试前高。

澳美收流星阴线,跌破10日均线,5日,10日均线金叉缩小,日线RSI回落至50附近,后市有望延续下行并测试0.69,0.6860。

美日收倒锤阳线,回踩5日均线,再度于下行趋势线附近遇阻,131.4一线面临强压,日线RSI仍位于低位,后市有望延续震荡,建议关注127-131.4区间。

白银连续2日重幅下挫,且跌破关键支撑23.5,5日,10日均线拐头下行,日线RSI跌至50附近,后市有望延续下行并测试23。

A50小幅回落,徘徊于5日均线附近,多头动能放缓,13600一线存在一定支撑,后市有望延续震荡,建议关注13600-14000区间。

2023年01月19日 许曦扬

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